THIS is what the recent past tells us about Bury’s population increase since 1981.

I did not need to pay population forecasters tens of thousands of pounds.

I just checked the census totals for the borough from 1981 to 2011.

Dead simple. Here’s what they say and my conclusion.

Though I stress that the GMSF population target for Bury is so deeply flawed, and on top of that the Labour-controlled GMCA/AGMA chose accelerated growth over and above the moderated status quo growth; and someone must be held responsible for the time and money spent on this error.

There are no figures before 1981 as there was no Bury MBC in 1971.

Population 1981 — 175,459

Population 1991 — 179,168 — 371 rise in 10 years 371 in a year average.

Population 2001 — 180,608 — 1,440 rise in 10 years 144 in a year average.

Population 2011 — 185,060 — 4,452 rise in 10 years 445 in a year average.

We can maybe put the recent rise down to immigration from the EU. This will cease on Brexit.

So the worst-case scenario is that with 445 rise a year for next 20 years, 8,900 new people will live in Bury.

That is assuming free movement will continue, which it will not.

Assume 2.2 people per home, 4,045 homes. I just checked my half of my street. It is 2.3 people per home.

So remain a member of the EU — 4,045 homes.

Drop to before the Eastern European nations were granted freedom of movement and it is 2,880 new people in 20 years.

At 2.2 people per home, it is 1,309 homes.

It is worthwhile noting that the GMSF specifically says (reading the minutes to meeting and tabled items) that the UK will remain part of the Single Market and Freedom of Movement will continue forever.

Dave Bentley

Bury