How climate change is set to affect Bury

In a report, the BBC and weather forecaster Met Office have looked into the UK’s changing climate in detail to find out how much rain could fall and how high temperatures could climb in different areas.

Increased rainfall, higher temperatures and extreme weather events are likely to become more frequent if climate change and global warming continues at its current rate.

Human activity has increased carbon dioxide emissions and has caused rising temperatures worldwide.

The hottest day recorded in the UK came recently when temperatures reached 40.3C in the east of England.

Currently, the hottest summer day of the past 30 years in Bury was 32.2C.

If global average temperatures increase by 2C above pre-industrial levels, the hottest summer day in Bury could be around 33.4C, and if they rise by 4C could reach 37.9C.

The report said: “Urgent cuts in these emissions are needed to keep the rise in global average temperatures in check.

“Governments that signed the Paris Agreement, in 2016, pledged to cut emissions and keep temperatures well below a 2C rise by the end of this century, but the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says even a 1.5C rise could be devastating.”

In Bury, there was only one day above 25C per month on average in the past 30 summers but with a 2C this could rise to three days and with a 4C rise there could be seven days.

The average summer daytime temperature currently ranges from around 14C to 22C but with a 4C increase the average could rise to 25C.

As the world warms, fewer rainy days in summer are expected.

The average per month in the last 30 years in Bury were 13 rainy days but with a 2C rise this could be 12 days and a 4C rise could be about 10 days.

However, in winter, there are on average 15 rainy days per month, and this would be unlikely to change.

Flooding will become an even bigger threat as although total rainfall is expected to decline, rains may become heavier.

On the wettest summer day in the past 30 years in Bury, 54mm of rain fell in the area.

A 4C rise could increase this level to around 60mm which is an 11 per cent increase.

In winter, the wettest winter day on average in the past 30 years in Bury saw 62mm of rainfall.

A 4C rise could increase the level to 70mm which is a 12 per cent increase.

Dr Lizzie Kendon, a senior Met Office scientist said: "I think it’s really frightening, it's just a wake-up call really as to what we’re talking about here.”

Cllr Alan Quinn, cabinet member for environment, climate change and operations for the council, said: “If we get into very high temperatures, and we already have a cost-of-living crisis with people struggling to heat the home, we may have people struggling to pay for air conditioning that they would need.

“It will also have effects on the health service due to sufferers of heatstroke and tragically we also have to send the message of don’t dive in rivers and reservoirs because we’ve had a few deaths this year from young people who have just jumped into water and got into trouble.

“We will also have more rainfall, by 2050 the Environment Agency said we’ll have 59 per cent more rainfall and by the end of the century 70 per cent more rainfall. We need to start adjusting.

“From my point of view, going forward any new housing development must have sustainable drainage as the consideration.

"We also need to plant more trees to take the CO2 out the atmosphere.

“One problem we have is in Greater Manchester, we have to remove hundreds of thousands of ash trees due to ash dieback.

“If we replace these with a tree and a tree pit with sustainable drainage it will cost around £5,000 a tree.

“Milder winters are causing diseases to spread more easily, and they aren’t being killed off by the hard frosts of winter.

“There’s a whole host of things that will need looking at but what we do know is that climate change is here.

“I think from our point of view, the council will need more resources.”